The Turkish Syrian Dilemma

One of the most contentious issues in Turkey revolves around the uncontrolled influx of asylum seekers, particularly Syrians and Afghans, into major cities. Over the past decade, it is estimated that more than ten million asylum seekers have entered the country via its eastern and southern borders, constituting over ten percent of the total population.
Despite discrepancies between official and estimated figures, Turkey currently hosts the largest number of refugees globally.

These asylum seekers pose significant challenges to Turkey’s internal stability. Beyond the existing difficulties, the surge in asylum seekers has introduced serious public order risks, exacerbating social, political, demographic, and economic problems.

The lack of effective government management has led to growing tensions arising from differences in language, culture, belief systems, and social structures. Many of these individuals lack documented criminal, health, family, and educational histories.
Internal disputes among asylum seekers have also emerged due to the issues they carry with them. Consequently, unpredictable tensions have arisen both within Turkey and across the border in northern Syria. The Turkish government has struggled to address the economic and political repercussions caused by the refugee crisis, resulting in social discontent and reactions.

Unfortunately, refugees face a grim reality: they are unwelcome in their home countries, as well as in the host nations and the regions where they seek to establish new lives. The psychological toll of an uncertain future and the feeling of being unwanted anywhere have created a profound human tragedy.

The Anatolian Peninsula, positioned as a bridge between the conflicted Middle East and Europe, serves as a transit route for migration waves originating from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Syria, and the Horn of Africa, all bound for Europe. The challenges posed by this ongoing crisis continue to shape the region’s dynamics and require thoughtful solutions.

The Syrian Dilemma in Turkey

Due to both physical and virtual barriers separating Europe, Turkey has become a destination for asylum seekers unable to reach the West. The majority of these refugees originate from neighboring Syria. Over the past 13 years, the influx began with those seeking refuge from the civil war, and the current estimate stands at 13 million.

In tense border regions like Hatay, Gaziantep, and Urfa, more than 90 percent of asylum seekers are Syrian. Consequently, the public tends to perceive nearly all refugees as Syrian. However, the return of refugees to Syria hinges on the country’s normalization and improved relations. Without such progress, both nations must brace for potential diplomatic crises related to international law, inheritance, citizenship conflicts, individual rights, and political protection.
Taking diplomatic steps toward reconciliation and normalization would benefit not only Turkey and Syria but also the entire region and its people.

Shift in Turkish Foreign Policy

After more than thirteen years of hostility and confrontation, there are indications that Turkish foreign policy toward Syria may take a significant turn. The first step toward a potential “miraculous” reconciliation could involve a high-level joint declaration of goodwill without any preconditions.

Despite the delay, Turkey is now leading efforts toward reconciliation and has reached out to the Syrian leadership for normalization. This shift in approach stems from the realization that the ongoing disintegration of our neighboring country poses a threat to our own territorial integrity. The urgency of this situation underscores the magnitude of the danger we face. Failing to address this strategically would perpetuate political deadlocks and result in irreversible harm to both nations.
The Syrian side has responded by emphasizing the need for the departure of Turkish troops from Syria and the cessation of support for armed groups.

Mediating

As parties at least express their goodwill toward reconciliation, it is advisable to rely exclusively on the United Nations (UN) as a mediation tool. This approach avoids competition among rival powers.
Despite its gradual pace, emphasizing UN mechanisms offers the safest and most effective solution, fostering mutual confidence.

Furthermore, during the humanitarian effort to repatriate millions of refugees, coordination can occur with international organizations like NATO, the EU, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and the G20, provided all parties agree.
The fundamental principle must be to uphold Syria’s independence and sovereign integrity at every stage.

When Syria demands the withdrawal of Turkish troops as a precondition, it signifies the departure of all foreign forces from Syrian territory. To demonstrate its sincere commitment to sovereignty, Syria should formally request the withdrawal of foreign soldiers and military assets within a specified timetable. This request should extend to all countries with troops or professional fighters in Syria, including the USA, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and others.

Challenges

As the two countries move toward normalization, the establishment of joint technical reconciliation commissions involving experts from various fields becomes foreseeable. Among these commissions, the military-focused one is likely to be the most contentious, while addressing refugee matters may prove time-consuming.
The magnitude of the challenge lies in the massive repatriation effort—the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland. In Turkey, the refugee population has swelled to nearly the size of a medium-sized country.

To minimize dissatisfaction, it is crucial for both countries’ parliaments, relevant state institutions, non-governmental humanitarian organizations, and refugee representatives to actively participate in official organizing mechanisms.

While goodwill declarations oriented toward solutions will undoubtedly drive the reconciliation and normalization process, achieving the desired outcome will not be straightforward.
Nevertheless, diplomacy, when given the opportunity, can successfully tackle even the most complex and difficult problems.